6. Forex Carry Trades — Rate Differentials + Trend Filters
Overview
Carry trades earn the interest rate differential between two currencies. The risk: carry can grind higher for months, then unwind fast in risk-off regimes. A robust carry approach needs:
-
carry selection
-
trend alignment
-
risk-off protection
Step 1: Carry Selection (Operational)
Use data you can access consistently:
-
broker swap/rollover rates
-
or a rate differential table if you maintain macro data
Only consider pairs where expected carry is positive after costs.
Step 2: Trend Filter (Avoid Carry in Downtrends)
-
MA(50) > MA(200) for long carry
-
Optional: ADX(14) > 18 to avoid flat/choppy markets
Step 3: Risk-Off Protection
Carry is most vulnerable when volatility spikes:
-
Exit/avoid if price closes below MA(200)
-
Reduce size when ATR is elevated vs baseline
-
Avoid stacking correlated carry positions (e.g., multiple JPY-cross longs)
Management Rules
-
Rebalance weekly
-
Wider stops (~2.0–2.5 × ATR)
-
Cap exposure: max 1–2 concurrent carry positions
How to Use This in TradeOS
Run carry as a weekly rules-based workflow in TradeOS: shortlist pairs, check trend alignment, apply risk-off constraints, and keep exposure controlled.