4. S&P 500 Swing Trading — Regime Detection + Risk Rules
Overview
Most swing strategies break because traders apply the same setup across different environments. A pullback system can work in trends, then fail in ranges. The fix: separate the market into regimes, then apply the right playbook per regime.
Step 1: Regime Detection (Simple + Practical
Use two filters:
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Trend bias: MA(50) > MA(200)
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Trend strength: ADX(14) > 20
If both are true → trend regime. Otherwise → range regime.
Strategy A: Trend Pullback (Trend Regime Only)
Entry (Long)
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Price pulls back to EMA(20) or EMA(50)
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RSI(14) > 40
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Trigger: close back above EMA(20) or a bullish reversal candle near EMA support
Stop
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Below recent swing low or Entry − 1.5 × ATR(14) (use the wider)
Exits
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Partial at +1R
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Second target at +2R
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Trail remainder using 1.2–1.5 × ATR(14)
Strategy B: Range Mean Reversion (Range Regime Only)
Entry (Long)
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Touch/close below lower Bollinger Band (20,2)
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RSI(14) < 30
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Trigger: close back inside the band
Stop
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Entry − 2.0 × ATR(14)
Exits
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Target 1: mid-band (20MA)
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Optional target 2: upper band (only if RSI recovers)
Risk Rules (Edge Protection)
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Fixed risk per trade (e.g., 0.5–1.0% max)
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Pause after 2 consecutive losses
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Reduce size when ATR is elevated vs its median baseline
How to Use This in TradeOS
Build a regime-first swing workflow in TradeOS so you always know which checklist applies today: trend pullback or range reversion.